Verdivurdering Nordic Rutile AS
Sist oppdatert: 2017-08-20
NORDIC RUTILE | -50% | -40% | -30% | -20% | -10% | Base case | +10% | +20% | +30% | +40% | +50% | +75% | +100% | Unit |
Resource estimate (measured + indicated) cut off 2% | 62 | 75 | 87 | 100 | 112 | 125 | 137 | 150 | 162 | 175 | 187 | 218 | 249 | Mt |
TiO2 concentration, cut off 2% | 3,53 % | 3,53 % | 3,53 % | 3,53 % | 3,53 % | 3,53 % | 3,53 % | 3,53 % | 3,53 % | 3,53 % | 3,53 % | 3,53 % | 3,53 % | % |
Yearly takeout | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 | Mt |
Estimated mine life | 31,2 | 37,4 | 43,6 | 49,9 | 56,1 | 62,4 | 68,6 | 74,8 | 81,1 | 87,3 | 93,5 | 109,1 | 124,7 | Years |
Years of Open Pit mining | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | Years |
TiO2 recovery rate | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | % |
Rutile TiO2 concentration | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | % |
Yearly TiO2 production | 40 906 | 40 906 | 40 906 | 40 906 | 40 906 | 40 906 | 40 906 | 40 906 | 40 906 | 40 906 | 40 906 | 40 906 | 40 906 | Tonnes |
Garnet concentration (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 2% | 43,2 % | 43,2 % | 43,2% | 43,2% | 43,2% | 43,2% | 43,2 % | 43,2 % | 43,2 % | 43,2 % | 43,2 % | 43,2 % | 43,2 % | % |
Yearly garnet takeout estimate, (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 2% | 0,86 | 0,86 | 0,86 | 0,86 | 0,86 | 0,86 | 0,86 | 0,86 | 0,86 | 0,86 | 0,86 | 0,86 | 0,86 | Mt |
Garnet recovery rate | 34,3 % | 34,3 % | 34,3% | 34,3% | 34,3% | 34,3% | 34,3 % | 34,3 % | 34,3 % | 34,3 % | 34,3 % | 34,3 % | 34,3 % | % |
Yearly Garnet production | 296127 | 296127 | 296127 | 296127 | 296127 | 296127 | 296127 | 296127 | 296127 | 296127 | 296127 | 296127 | 296127 | Tonnes |
Percentage of garnet production: 100-180 um | 26,5 % | 26,5 % | 26,5% | 26,5% | 26,5% | 26,5% | 26,5 % | 26,5 % | 26,5 % | 26,5 % | 26,5 % | 26,5 % | 26,5 % | % |
Percentage of garnet production: 180-300 um | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | % |
Percentage of garnet production: 300-400 um | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5% | 33,5% | 33,5% | 33,5% | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | % |
Yearly garnet production: 100-180 um | 78 474 | 78 474 | 78 474 | 78 474 | 78 474 | 78 474 | 78 474 | 78 474 | 78 474 | 78 474 | 78 474 | 78 474 | 78 474 | Tonnes |
Yearly garnet production: 180-300 um | 118451 | 118451 | 118451 | 118451 | 118451 | 118451 | 118451 | 118451 | 118451 | 118451 | 118451 | 118451 | 118451 | Tonnes |
Yearly garnet production: 300-400 um | 99 202 | 99 202 | 99202 | 99202 | 99202 | 99202 | 99 202 | 99 202 | 99 202 | 99 202 | 99 202 | 99 202 | 99 202 | Tonnes |
TiO2 95% market value | 525 | 630 | 735 | 840 | 945 | 1 050 | 1 155 | 1 260 | 1 365 | 1 470 | 1 575 | 1 838 | 2 100 | USD/T |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge | 223 | 267 | 312 | 356 | 401 | 445 | 490 | 534 | 579 | 623 | 668 | 779 | 890 | USD/T |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) | 75 | 90 | 105 | 120 | 135 | 150 | 165 | 180 | 195 | 210 | 225 | 263 | 300 | USD/T |
Garnet market value - High Speed Cutting | 38 | 45 | 53 | 60 | 68 | 75 | 83 | 90 | 98 | 105 | 113 | 131 | 150 | USD/T |
Average garnet sales price | 102 | 122 | 142 | 162 | 183 | 203 | 223 | 244 | 264 | 284 | 305 | 355 | 406 | USD/T |
Yearly sales income TiO2 | 21 | 26 | 30 | 34 | 39 | 43 | 47 | 52 | 56 | 60 | 64 | 75 | 86 | MUSD |
Yearly sales income garnet, all qualities | 30 | 36 | 42 | 48 | 54 | 60 | 66 | 72 | 78 | 84 | 90 | 105 | 120 | MUSD |
Yearly sales income (TiO2 + garnet) | 54,09 | 64,91 | 75,72 | 86,54 | 97,36 | 103 | 113 | 124 | 134 | 144 | 155 | 180 | 206 | MUSD |
Operational cost per ton TiO2 & garnet, Open pit mining | 275 | 330 | 385 | 440 | 495 | 550 | 605 | 660 | 715 | 770 | 825 | 963 | 1 100 | MUSD |
OPEX (annual production cost), Open pit mining | 11 | 13 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 31 | 34 | 39 | 45 | MUSD |
Operational cost per ton TiO2 & garnet, Underground mining | 485 | 582 | 679 | 776 | 873 | 970 | 1 067 | 1 164 | 1 261 | 1 358 | 1 455 | 1 698 | 1 940 | USD/T |
OPEX (annual production cost), Underground mining | 20 | 24 | 28 | 32 | 36 | 40 | 44 | 48 | 52 | 56 | 60 | 69 | 79 | MUSD |
Exchange rate NOK/USD: 19.08.2017 | 7,78 | 7,78 | 7,78 | 7,78 | 7,78 | 7,78 | 7,78 | 7,78 | 7,78 | 7,78 | 7,78 | 7,78 | 7,78 | NOK |
Yearly profit, Open pit mining | 40 | 48 | 56 | 64 | 73 | 81 | 89 | 97 | 105 | 113 | 121 | 141 | 161 | MUSD |
Yearly profit, Underground mining | 32 | 38 | 44 | 51 | 57 | 63 | 70 | 76 | 82 | 89 | 95 | 111 | 127 | MUSD |
NPV | 1 143 | 1 609 | 2 153 | 2 777 | 3 480 | 4 262 | 5 123 | 6 063 | 7 083 | 8 181 | 9 358 | 12 647 | 16 431 | MUSD |
Yearly profit, Open pit mining | 313 | 376 | 439 | 501 | 564 | 627 | 689 | 752 | 815 | 877 | 940 | 1 097 | 1 254 | MNOK |
Yearly profit, Underground mining | 247 | 296 | 345 | 395 | 444 | 493 | 542 | 592 | 641 | 690 | 740 | 863 | 986 | MNOK |
Total profit | 3 384 | 5 905 | 9 042 | 12793 | 17159 | 22141 | 27 737 | 33 948 | 40 774 | 48 215 | 56 271 | 79 101 | 105774 | MNOK |
Base investment | 1,10 | 1,32 | 1,54 | 1,76 | 1,98 | 2,20 | 2,42 | 2,64 | 2,86 | 3,08 | 3,30 | 3,85 | 4,40 | BNOK |
Percentage of Base investment with Bank financing | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | % |
Offtake agreement | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % | % |
Share issue | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | % |
Payback cost | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | % |
Total investment cost | 0,92 | 1,11 | 1,29 | 1,48 | 1,66 | 1,85 | 2,03 | 2,22 | 2,40 | 2,59 | 2,77 | 3,23 | 3,70 | BNOK |
New shares issued (Farmout) | 11,85 | 14,22 | 16,59 | 18,97 | 21,34 | 23,71 | 26,08 | 28,45 | 30,82 | 33,19 | 35,56 | 41,49 | 47,41 | Mill shares |
New shares total | 106,68 | 109,05 | 111,42 | 113,79 | 116,16 | 118,53 | 120,90 | 123,27 | 125,64 | 128,01 | 130,39 | 136,31 | 142,24 | Mill shares |
Share value | 83 | 115 | 150 | 190 | 233 | 280 | 330 | 383 | 438 | 497 | 558 | 722 | 898 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 30 | 81 | 95 | 108 | 121 | 133 | 145 | 156 | 167 | 178 | 188 | 198 | 221 | 242 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 25 | 69 | 81 | 93 | 104 | 114 | 124 | 134 | 143 | 152 | 161 | 169 | 189 | 207 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 20 | 57 | 67 | 77 | 86 | 95 | 103 | 112 | 119 | 127 | 134 | 141 | 157 | 172 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 15 | 46 | 54 | 62 | 69 | 76 | 83 | 89 | 95 | 101 | 107 | 113 | 126 | 138 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 10 | 29 | 34 | 39 | 44 | 49 | 53 | 57 | 61 | 65 | 69 | 72 | 80 | 88 | NOK/share |
NORDIC RUTILE | -50% | -40% | -30% | -20% | -10% | Base case | +10% | +20% | +30% | +40% | +50% | +75% | +100% | Unit |
Resource estimate (measured + indicated) cut off 3% | 46 | 56 | 65 | 74 | 83 | 93 | 102 | 111 | 120 | 130 | 139 | 162 | 185 | Mt |
TiO2 concentration, cut off 3% | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89% | 3,89% | 3,89% | 3,89% | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | % |
Yearly takeout | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 | Mt |
Estimated mine life | 23,1 | 27,8 | 32,4 | 37,0 | 41,6 | 46,3 | 50,9 | 55,5 | 60,1 | 64,8 | 69,4 | 80,9 | 92,5 | Years |
Years of Open Pit mining | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | Years |
TiO2 recovery rate | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | % |
Rutile TiO2 concentration | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | % |
Yearly TiO2 production | 44 998 | 44 998 | 44998 | 44998 | 44998 | 44998 | 44 998 | 44 998 | 44 998 | 44 998 | 44 998 | 44 998 | 44 998 | Tonnes |
Garnet concentration (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 3% | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7% | 43,7% | 43,7% | 43,7% | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | % |
Yearly garnet takeout estimate, (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 3% | 0,87 | 0,87 | 0,87 | 0,87 | 0,87 | 0,87 | 0,87 | 0,87 | 0,87 | 0,87 | 0,87 | 0,87 | 0,87 | Mt |
Garnet recovery rate | 34,3 % | 34,3 % | 34,3% | 34,3% | 34,3% | 34,3% | 34,3 % | 34,3 % | 34,3 % | 34,3 % | 34,3 % | 34,3 % | 34,3 % | % |
Yearly Garnet production | 300071 | 300071 | 300071 | 300071 | 300071 | 300071 | 300071 | 300071 | 300071 | 300071 | 300071 | 300071 | 300071 | Tonnes |
Percentage of garnet production: 100-180 um | 26,5 % | 26,5 % | 26,5 % | 26,5 % | 26,5 % | 26,5 % | 26,5 % | 26,5 % | 26,5 % | 26,5 % | 26,5 % | 26,5 % | 26,5 % | % |
Percentage of garnet production: 180-300 um | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | 40,0 % | % |
Percentage of garnet production: 300-400 um | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | % |
Yearly garnet production: 100-180 um | 79 519 | 79 519 | 79 519 | 79 519 | 79 519 | 79 519 | 79 519 | 79 519 | 79 519 | 79 519 | 79 519 | 79 519 | 79 519 | Tonnes |
Yearly garnet production: 180-300 um | 120028 | 120028 | 120028 | 120028 | 120028 | 120028 | 120028 | 120028 | 120028 | 120028 | 120028 | 120028 | 120028 | Tonnes |
Yearly garnet production: 300-400 um | 100524 | 100524 | 100524 | 100524 | 100524 | 100524 | 100524 | 100524 | 100524 | 100524 | 100524 | 100524 | 100524 | Tonnes |
TiO2 95% market value | 525 | 630 | 735 | 840 | 945 | 1 050 | 1 155 | 1 260 | 1 365 | 1 470 | 1 575 | 1 838 | 2 100 | USD/T |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge | 223 | 267 | 312 | 356 | 401 | 445 | 490 | 534 | 579 | 623 | 668 | 779 | 890 | USD/T |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) | 75 | 90 | 105 | 120 | 135 | 150 | 165 | 180 | 195 | 210 | 225 | 263 | 300 | USD/T |
Garnet market value - High Speed Cutting | 38 | 45 | 53 | 60 | 68 | 75 | 83 | 90 | 98 | 105 | 113 | 131 | 150 | USD/T |
Average garnet sales price | 102 | 122 | 142 | 162 | 183 | 203 | 223 | 244 | 264 | 284 | 305 | 355 | 406 | USD/T |
Yearly sales income TiO2 | 24 | 28 | 33 | 38 | 43 | 47 | 52 | 57 | 61 | 66 | 71 | 83 | 94 | MUSD |
Yearly sales income garnet, all qualities | 30 | 37 | 43 | 49 | 55 | 61 | 67 | 73 | 79 | 85 | 91 | 107 | 122 | MUSD |
Yearly sales income (TiO2 + garnet) | 54 | 65 | 76 | 87 | 97 | 108 | 119 | 130 | 141 | 151 | 162 | 189 | 216 | MUSD |
Operational cost per ton TiO2 & garnet, Open pit mining | 275 | 330 | 385 | 440 | 495 | 550 | 605 | 660 | 715 | 770 | 825 | 963 | 1 100 | USD/T |
OPEX (annual production cost), Open pit mining | 12 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 22 | 25 | 27 | 30 | 32 | 35 | 37 | 43 | 49 | MUSD |
Operational cost per ton TiO2 & garnet, Underground mining | 485 | 582 | 679 | 776 | 873 | 970 | 1 067 | 1 164 | 1 261 | 1 358 | 1 455 | 1 698 | 1 940 | USD/T |
OPEX (annual production cost), Underground mining | 22 | 26 | 31 | 35 | 39 | 44 | 48 | 52 | 57 | 61 | 65 | 76 | 87 | MUSD |
Exchange rate NOK/USD: 19.08.2017 | 7,78 | 7,78 | 7,78 | 7,78 | 7,78 | 7,78 | 7,78 | 7,78 | 7,78 | 7,78 | 7,78 | 7,78 | 7,78 | NOK |
Yearly profit, Open pit mining | 42 | 50 | 58 | 67 | 75 | 83 | 92 | 100 | 108 | 117 | 125 | 146 | 167 | MUSD |
Yearly profit, Underground mining | 32 | 39 | 45 | 52 | 58 | 65 | 71 | 77 | 84 | 90 | 97 | 113 | 129 | MUSD |
NPV | 916 | 1 279 | 1 701 | 2 182 | 2 724 | 3 325 | 3 985 | 4 706 | 5 486 | 6 326 | 7 225 | 9 735 | 12 618 | MUSD |
Yearly profit, Open pit mining | 324 | 389 | 454 | 519 | 584 | 649 | 714 | 779 | 844 | 908 | 973 | 1 136 | 1 298 | MNOK |
Yearly profit, Underground mining | 251 | 301 | 351 | 402 | 452 | 502 | 552 | 602 | 652 | 703 | 753 | 878 | 1 004 | MNOK |
NPV | 1 428 | 3 106 | 5 249 | 7 856 | 10 927 | 14 463 | 18 462 | 22 926 | 27 854 | 33 247 | 39 104 | 55 777 | 75 351 | MNOK |
Base investment | 1,10 | 1,32 | 1,54 | 1,76 | 1,98 | 2,20 | 2,42 | 2,64 | 2,86 | 3,08 | 3,30 | 3,85 | 4,40 | BNOK |
Percentage of Base investment with Bank financing | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | % |
Offtake agreement | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % | 15 % | % |
Farmout | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | % |
Payback cost | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | % |
Total investment cost | 0,92 | 1,11 | 1,29 | 1,48 | 1,66 | 1,85 | 2,03 | 2,22 | 2,40 | 2,59 | 2,77 | 3,23 | 3,70 | BNOK |
New shares issued (Farmout) | 11,85 | 14,22 | 16,59 | 18,97 | 21,34 | 23,71 | 26,08 | 28,45 | 30,82 | 33,19 | 35,56 | 41,49 | 47,41 | Mill shares |
New shares total | 106,68 | 109,05 | 111,42 | 113,79 | 116,16 | 118,53 | 120,90 | 123,27 | 125,64 | 128,01 | 130,39 | 136,31 | 142,24 | Mill shares |
Share value | 67 | 91 | 119 | 149 | 182 | 218 | 256 | 297 | 340 | 384 | 431 | 555 | 690 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 30 | 83 | 97 | 111 | 124 | 137 | 149 | 161 | 172 | 183 | 194 | 204 | 227 | 249 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 25 | 71 | 84 | 95 | 107 | 118 | 128 | 138 | 148 | 157 | 166 | 175 | 195 | 214 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 20 | 59 | 70 | 80 | 89 | 98 | 107 | 115 | 123 | 131 | 139 | 146 | 163 | 178 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 15 | 48 | 56 | 64 | 72 | 79 | 86 | 93 | 99 | 105 | 111 | 117 | 131 | 143 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 10 | 30 | 36 | 41 | 46 | 50 | 55 | 59 | 63 | 67 | 71 | 75 | 83 | 91 | NOK/share |
- Spencer Trading AS
- A London based asset management fund
- Alden AS
- Tigerstaden AS
Resource variables | Mt | TiO2 % | Garnet % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Measured) (Selected) | 15 | 3,97 % | 44,6 % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Indicated) (Selected) | 77,5 | 3,87 % | 43,6 % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Measured + indicated) (Selected) | 92,5 | 3,89 % | 43,7 % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Inferred)(Selected) | 138,4 | 3,86 % | 43,5 % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% measured + indicated + inferred) (Selected) | 230,9 | 3,87 % | 43,6 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Measured) | 19 | 3,68 % | 43,9 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Indicated) | 105,7 | 3,51 % | 43,0 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Measured + indicated) | 124,7 | 3,53 % | 43,2 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Inferred) | 254,5 | 3,22 % | 42,5 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% measured + indicated + inferred) | 379,2 | 3,32 % | 42,7 % |
Select company estimate (2011) or 2016 updated estimate | 2016 est. |
Select Cut off grade: | 3,0 % |
Other variables | Base case | |
Estimated mine life | 50 | Years |
Open pit mining | 15 | Years |
Annual payback | 500 | MNOK |
Payback time | 4,9 | Years |
Payback rate | 1,8 | - |
Yearly takeout | 4,0 | Mt |
Exchange rate USD (2011) | 5,6070 | NOK |
Exchange rate USD 30.11.2016 | 8,51 | NOK |
Operational Cash Cost percentage in USD | 14,5 % | % |
Operational Cash Cost percentage in NOK | 85,5 % | % |
Base investment cost percentage in USD | 62,90 % | % |
Base investment cost percentage in NOK | 37,10 % | % |
Company estimated CAPEX (2011), Investment year 0: 2014 | 2014 | |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Production start up: 2016 | 2016 | |
External investor project share | 40 % | % |
No. Of shares | 92,6 | Mill. |
Additional share issue | 0 | Mill. |
Inflation adjusted 2,5 % p.a. from 2013 to 2020 (7 x 2,5%) | 2,50 % | % |
Rutile variables | Base case | |
Yearly rutile production (Selected) | 97500 | tonnes |
TiO2 recovery rate | 55 % | % |
TiO2 long term price | 1050 | USD/t |
Garnet variables | Base case | |
Yearly garnet production, High Precision Edge | 200000 | tonnes |
Yearly garnet production, High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) (Selected) | 0 | tonnes |
Yearly garnet production, High Speed Cutting (Selected) | 0 | tonnes |
Garnet grain size range | 100-400 | um |
Garnet recovery rate (Selected) | 38 % | % |
Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge: 100-180 um (26,7 %) | 27 | Mt |
Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard): 180-300 um (40 %) | 40 | Mt |
Garnet grain size - High Speed Cutting: 300-400 um (33,3 %) | 34 | Mt |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge | 445 | USD/t |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) | 150 | USD/t |
Garnet market value - High Speed Cutting | 75 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining | ||
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining | 550 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining incl. By-prod. | 185 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining, OPEX share in USD | 80 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining, OPEX share in NOK, rate 5,607 | 2637 | NOK/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining | ||
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining | 970 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining incl. By-prod. | 550 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining, OPEX share in USD | 141 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining, OPEX share in NOK, rate 5,607 | 4650 | NOK/t |
Company estimated CAPEX (2011) | ||
Company estimated CAPEX (2011) | 300 | MUSD |
Company estimated CAPEX (2011), share in USD | 189 | MUSD |
Company estimated CAPEX (2011), CAPEX share in NOK, rate 5,607 | 624 | MNOK |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining | ||
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining, OPEX share in USD | 80 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining, OPEX share in NOK, rate 8,51 | 310 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining | 390 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining | ||
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining, OPEX share in USD | 141 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining, OPEX share in NOK, rate 8,51 | 546 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining | 687 | USD/t |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) | ||
Estimated CAPEX (2016), share in USD | 189 | MUSD |
Estimated CAPEX (2016), CAPEX share in NOK, rate 8,51 | 73 | MUSD |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) | 262 | MUSD |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) inflation adjusted 2014-2018, 2,5% p.a. | 27 | MUSD |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining inflation adjusted 2016-2020, 2,5% p.a. | 40 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining inflation adjusted 2016-2020, 2,5% p.a. | 71 | USD/t |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) inflation adjusted for investment year 0 = 2018 (Selected) | 289 | MUSD |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining inflation adjusted for production start up 2020 (Selected) | 430 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining inflation adjusted for production start up 2020 (Selected) | 758 | USD/t |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) change | -3,6 % | % |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining change | -21,8 % | % |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining change | -21,8 % | % |
Garnet Water Jet qualities | micron | |
High Precision Edge | 100-180 | um |
High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) | 180-300 | um |
High Speed Cutting | 300-400 | um |
CAPEX and OPEX; 2,5% inflation adjusted p.a. for startup 2020 | CAPEX | OPEX 1 | OPEX 2 | Inflation |
2011 | 2,50 % | |||
2012 | 2,50 % | |||
2013 | 2,50 % | |||
2014 | 262 | 2,50 % | ||
2015 | 269 | 2,50 % | ||
2016 | 275 | 390 | 687 | 2,50 % |
2017 | 282 | 399 | 704 | 2,50 % |
2018 | 289 | 409 | 722 | 2,50 % |
2019 | 420 | 740 | 2,50 % | |
2020 | 430 | 758 | 2,50 % |
NORDIC RUTILE | -20% | -15% | -10% | -5% | Base case | +20% | +40% | +60% | +80% | +100% | Unit |
TiO2 resource estimate (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 3% | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | Mt |
TiO2 concentration (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 3% | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | % |
TiO2 resource estimate (inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | Mt |
TiO2 concentration (inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | % |
TiO2 total (measured + indicated + inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | Mt |
TiO2 concentration (measured + indicated + inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | % |
Yearly takeout | 3,6 | 3,9 | 4,1 | 4,3 | 4,6 | 5,5 | 6,4 | 7,3 | 8,2 | 9,1 | Mt |
TiO2 recovery rate | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | % |
Yearly TiO2 production | 78000 | 82875 | 87750 | 92625 | 97500 | 117000 | 136500 | 156000 | 175500 | 195000 | t |
Estimated mine life | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | Years |
Garnet concentration (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 3% | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | % |
Garnet resource estimate, (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 3% | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | Mt |
Garnet concentration (inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | % |
Garnet resource estimate, (inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | Mt |
Concentration of Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge: 100-180 um (26,7 %) | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | % |
Concentration of Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard): 180-300 um (40 %) | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | % |
Concentration of Garnet grain size - High Speed Cutting: 300-400 um (33,3 %) | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | % |
Garnet total (measured + indicated + inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | Mt |
Garnet recovery rate | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | % |
Yearly production Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge: 100-180 um (26,7 %) | 160689 | 170732 | 180775 | 190818 | 200861 | 241033 | 281206 | 321378 | 361550 | 401722 | t |
Yearly production Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard): 180-300 um (40 %) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | t |
Yearly production Garnet grain size - High Speed Cutting: 300-400 um (33,3 %) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | t |
TiO2 95% market value | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | USD/ton |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | USD/ton |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | USD/ton |
Garnet market value - High Speed Cutting | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | USD/ton |
Yearly sales income TiO2 | 82 | 87 | 92 | 97 | 102 | 123 | 143 | 164 | 184 | 205 | MUSD |
Yearly sales income garnet, all qualities | 72 | 76 | 80 | 85 | 89 | 107 | 125 | 143 | 161 | 179 | MUSD |
Yearly sales income (TiO2 + garnet) | 153 | 163 | 173 | 182 | 192 | 230 | 268 | 307 | 345 | 384 | MUSD |
Operational cost per ton TiO2 & garnet, Open pit mining | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 | USD/ton |
OPEX (annual production cost), Open pit mining | 33,5 | 35,6 | 37,7 | 39,8 | 41,9 | 50,3 | 58,7 | 67,1 | 75,5 | 83,9 | MUSD |
Operational cost per ton TiO2 & garnet, Underground mining | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 | USD/ton |
OPEX (annual production cost), Underground mining | 59,2 | 62,9 | 66,6 | 70,2 | 73,9 | 88,7 | 103,5 | 118,3 | 133,1 | 147,9 | MUSD |
Exchange rate USD/NOK | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | NOK/USD |
Yearly profit, Open pit mining | 1020 | 1084 | 1148 | 1211 | 1275 | 1530 | 1785 | 2040 | 2295 | 2550 | MNOK |
Yearly profit, Underground mining | 802 | 852 | 902 | 952 | 1003 | 1203 | 1404 | 1604 | 1805 | 2005 | MNOK |
Total profit | 43,7 | 46,4 | 49,2 | 51,9 | 54,6 | 65,6 | 76,5 | 87,4 | 98,3 | 109,3 | BNOK |
Total TiO2 production @ Cut Off 3% | 3,9 | 4,2 | 4,4 | 4,7 | 4,9 | 5,9 | 6,9 | 7,9 | 8,8 | 9,8 | Mt |
Total garnet production @ Cut Off 3% | 8,1 | 8,6 | 9,1 | 9,6 | 10,1 | 12,2 | 14,2 | 16,2 | 18,2 | 20,3 | Mt |
TiO2 utilization | 44 % | 47 % | 50 % | 52 % | 55 % | 66 % | 77 % | 88 % | 99 % | 100 % | % |
High Precision Edge utilization | 30 % | 32 % | 34 % | 36 % | 38 % | 45 % | 53 % | 60 % | 68 % | 75 % | % |
High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) utilization | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | % |
High Speed Cutting utilization | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | % |
Base investment | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | BNOK |
Payback cost | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | BNOK |
Total investment cost | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | BNOK |
External investor project share | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | % |
Remaining investment cost | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | BNOK |
Remaining yearly profit, Open pit mining | 612 | 650 | 689 | 727 | 765 | 918 | 1071 | 1224 | 1377 | 1530 | MNOK |
Remaining yearly profit, Underground mining | 481 | 511 | 541 | 571 | 602 | 722 | 842 | 962 | 1083 | 1203 | MNOK |
Remaining total profit | 26,2 | 27,9 | 29,5 | 31,1 | 32,8 | 39,3 | 45,9 | 52,4 | 59,0 | 65,6 | BNOK |
Number of shares | 92,6 | 92,6 | 92,6 | 92,6 | 92,6 | 92,6 | 92,6 | 92,6 | 92,6 | 92,6 | Mill. |
Estimated additional share issue | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | Mill. |
Total number of shares at startup | 92,6 | 92,6 | 92,6 | 92,6 | 92,6 | 92,6 | 92,6 | 92,6 | 92,6 | 92,6 | Mill. |
Payback time | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | Years |
NPV | 23,9 | 25,5 | 27,2 | 28,8 | 30,4 | 37,0 | 43,5 | 50,1 | 56,7 | 74,8 | BNOK |
Share value | 257,9 | 275,6 | 293,3 | 311,0 | 328,7 | 399,5 | 470,3 | 541,1 | 611,9 | 807,8 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 20 | 99,8 | 107,6 | 115,4 | 123,3 | 131,1 | 162,4 | 193,7 | 224,9 | 256,2 | 287,5 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 15 | 73,8 | 80,0 | 86,2 | 92,4 | 98,6 | 123,4 | 148,2 | 173,0 | 197,8 | 222,5 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 10 | 47,8 | 52,4 | 57,0 | 61,5 | 66,1 | 84,4 | 102,7 | 121,0 | 139,3 | 157,6 | NOK/share |
Resource variables | Mt | TiO2 % | Garnet % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Measured) (Selected) | 15 | 3,97 % | 44,6 % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Indicated) (Selected) | 77,5 | 3,87 % | 43,6 % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Measured + indicated) (Selected) | 92,5 | 3,89 % | 43,7 % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Inferred)(Selected) | 138,4 | 3,86 % | 43,5 % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% measured + indicated + inferred) (Selected) | 230,9 | 3,87 % | 43,6 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Measured) | 19 | 3,68 % | 43,9 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Indicated) | 105,7 | 3,51 % | 43,0 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Measured + indicated) | 124,7 | 3,53 % | 43,2 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Inferred) | 254,5 | 3,22 % | 42,5 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% measured + indicated + inferred) | 379,2 | 3,32 % | 42,7 % |
Select company estimate (2011) or 2016 updated estimate | 2016 est. |
Select Cut off grade: | 3,0 % |
Other variables | Base case | |
Estimated mine life | 50 | Years |
Open pit mining | 15 | Years |
Annual payback | 500 | MNOK |
Payback time | 4,9 | Years |
Payback rate | 1,8 | - |
Yearly takeout | 4,0 | Mt |
Exchange rate USD (2011) | 5,6070 | NOK |
Exchange rate USD 30.11.2016 | 8,51 | NOK |
Operational Cash Cost percentage in USD | 14,5 % | % |
Operational Cash Cost percentage in NOK | 85,5 % | % |
Base investment cost percentage in USD | 62,90 % | % |
Base investment cost percentage in NOK | 37,10 % | % |
Company estimated CAPEX (2011), Investment year 0: 2014 | 2014 | |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Production start up: 2016 | 2016 | |
External investor project share | 40 % | % |
No. Of shares | 86,21 | Mill. |
Additional share issue | 0 | Mill. |
Inflation adjusted 2,5 % p.a. from 2013 to 2020 (7 x 2,5%) | 2,50 % | % |
Rutile variables | Base case | |
Yearly rutile production (Selected) | 97500 | tonnes |
TiO2 recovery rate | 55 % | % |
TiO2 long term price | 1050 | USD/t |
Garnet variables | Base case | |
Yearly garnet production, High Precision Edge | 200000 | tonnes |
Yearly garnet production, High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) (Selected) | 0 | tonnes |
Yearly garnet production, High Speed Cutting (Selected) | 0 | tonnes |
Garnet grain size range | 100-400 | um |
Garnet recovery rate (Selected) | 38 % | % |
Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge: 100-180 um (26,7 %) | 27 | Mt |
Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard): 180-300 um (40 %) | 40 | Mt |
Garnet grain size - High Speed Cutting: 300-400 um (33,3 %) | 34 | Mt |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge | 445 | USD/t |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) | 150 | USD/t |
Garnet market value - High Speed Cutting | 75 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining | ||
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining | 550 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining incl. By-prod. | 185 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining, OPEX share in USD | 80 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining, OPEX share in NOK, rate 5,607 | 2637 | NOK/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining | ||
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining | 970 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining incl. By-prod. | 550 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining, OPEX share in USD | 141 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining, OPEX share in NOK, rate 5,607 | 4650 | NOK/t |
Company estimated CAPEX (2011) | ||
Company estimated CAPEX (2011) | 300 | MUSD |
Company estimated CAPEX (2011), share in USD | 189 | MUSD |
Company estimated CAPEX (2011), CAPEX share in NOK, rate 5,607 | 624 | MNOK |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining | ||
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining, OPEX share in USD | 80 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining, OPEX share in NOK, rate 8,51 | 310 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining | 390 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining | ||
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining, OPEX share in USD | 141 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining, OPEX share in NOK, rate 8,51 | 546 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining | 687 | USD/t |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) | ||
Estimated CAPEX (2016), share in USD | 189 | MUSD |
Estimated CAPEX (2016), CAPEX share in NOK, rate 8,51 | 73 | MUSD |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) | 262 | MUSD |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) inflation adjusted 2014-2018, 2,5% p.a. | 27 | MUSD |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining inflation adjusted 2016-2020, 2,5% p.a. | 40 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining inflation adjusted 2016-2020, 2,5% p.a. | 71 | USD/t |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) inflation adjusted for investment year 0 = 2018 (Selected) | 289 | MUSD |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining inflation adjusted for production start up 2020 (Selected) | 430 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining inflation adjusted for production start up 2020 (Selected) | 758 | USD/t |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) change | -3,6 % | % |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining change | -21,8 % | % |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining change | -21,8 % | % |
Garnet Water Jet qualities | micron | |
High Precision Edge | 100-180 | um |
High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) | 180-300 | um |
High Speed Cutting | 300-400 | um |
CAPEX and OPEX; 2,5% inflation adjusted p.a. for startup 2020 | CAPEX | OPEX 1 | OPEX 2 | Inflation |
2011 | 2,50 % | |||
2012 | 2,50 % | |||
2013 | 2,50 % | |||
2014 | 262 | 2,50 % | ||
2015 | 269 | 2,50 % | ||
2016 | 275 | 390 | 687 | 2,50 % |
2017 | 282 | 399 | 704 | 2,50 % |
2018 | 289 | 409 | 722 | 2,50 % |
2019 | 420 | 740 | 2,50 % | |
2020 | 430 | 758 | 2,50 % |
NORDIC RUTILE | -20% | -15% | -10% | -5% | Base case | +20% | +40% | +60% | +80% | +100% | Unit |
TiO2 resource estimate (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 3% | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | Mt |
TiO2 concentration (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 3% | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | % |
TiO2 resource estimate (inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | Mt |
TiO2 concentration (inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | % |
TiO2 total (measured + indicated + inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | Mt |
TiO2 concentration (measured + indicated + inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | % |
Yearly takeout | 3,6 | 3,9 | 4,1 | 4,3 | 4,6 | 5,5 | 6,4 | 7,3 | 8,2 | 9,1 | Mt |
TiO2 recovery rate | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | % |
Yearly TiO2 production | 78000 | 82875 | 87750 | 92625 | 97500 | 117000 | 136500 | 156000 | 175500 | 195000 | t |
Estimated mine life | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | Years |
Garnet concentration (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 3% | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | % |
Garnet resource estimate, (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 3% | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | Mt |
Garnet concentration (inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | % |
Garnet resource estimate, (inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | Mt |
Concentration of Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge: 100-180 um (26,7 %) | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | % |
Concentration of Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard): 180-300 um (40 %) | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | % |
Concentration of Garnet grain size - High Speed Cutting: 300-400 um (33,3 %) | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | % |
Garnet total (measured + indicated + inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | Mt |
Garnet recovery rate | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | % |
Yearly production Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge: 100-180 um (26,7 %) | 160689 | 170732 | 180775 | 190818 | 200861 | 241033 | 281206 | 321378 | 361550 | 401722 | t |
Yearly production Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard): 180-300 um (40 %) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | t |
Yearly production Garnet grain size - High Speed Cutting: 300-400 um (33,3 %) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | t |
TiO2 95% market value | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | USD/ton |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | USD/ton |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | USD/ton |
Garnet market value - High Speed Cutting | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | USD/ton |
Yearly sales income TiO2 | 82 | 87 | 92 | 97 | 102 | 123 | 143 | 164 | 184 | 205 | MUSD |
Yearly sales income garnet, all qualities | 72 | 76 | 80 | 85 | 89 | 107 | 125 | 143 | 161 | 179 | MUSD |
Yearly sales income (TiO2 + garnet) | 153 | 163 | 173 | 182 | 192 | 230 | 268 | 307 | 345 | 384 | MUSD |
Operational cost per ton TiO2 & garnet, Open pit mining | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 | USD/ton |
OPEX (annual production cost), Open pit mining | 33,5 | 35,6 | 37,7 | 39,8 | 41,9 | 50,3 | 58,7 | 67,1 | 75,5 | 83,9 | MUSD |
Operational cost per ton TiO2 & garnet, Underground mining | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 | USD/ton |
OPEX (annual production cost), Underground mining | 59,2 | 62,9 | 66,6 | 70,2 | 73,9 | 88,7 | 103,5 | 118,3 | 133,1 | 147,9 | MUSD |
Exchange rate USD/NOK 30.11.2016 | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | NOK/USD |
Yearly profit, Open pit mining | 1020 | 1084 | 1148 | 1211 | 1275 | 1530 | 1785 | 2040 | 2295 | 2550 | MNOK |
Yearly profit, Underground mining | 802 | 852 | 902 | 952 | 1003 | 1203 | 1404 | 1604 | 1805 | 2005 | MNOK |
Total profit | 43,7 | 46,4 | 49,2 | 51,9 | 54,6 | 65,6 | 76,5 | 87,4 | 98,3 | 109,3 | BNOK |
Total TiO2 production @ Cut Off 3% | 3,9 | 4,2 | 4,4 | 4,7 | 4,9 | 5,9 | 6,9 | 7,9 | 8,8 | 9,8 | Mt |
Total garnet production @ Cut Off 3% | 8,1 | 8,6 | 9,1 | 9,6 | 10,1 | 12,2 | 14,2 | 16,2 | 18,2 | 20,3 | Mt |
TiO2 utilization | 44 % | 47 % | 50 % | 52 % | 55 % | 66 % | 77 % | 88 % | 99 % | 100 % | % |
High Precision Edge utilization | 30 % | 32 % | 34 % | 36 % | 38 % | 45 % | 53 % | 60 % | 68 % | 75 % | % |
High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) utilization | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | % |
High Speed Cutting utilization | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | % |
Base investment | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | BNOK |
Payback cost | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | BNOK |
Total investment cost | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | BNOK |
External investor project share | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | % |
Remaining investment cost | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | BNOK |
Remaining yearly profit, Open pit mining | 612 | 650 | 689 | 727 | 765 | 918 | 1071 | 1224 | 1377 | 1530 | MNOK |
Remaining yearly profit, Underground mining | 481 | 511 | 541 | 571 | 602 | 722 | 842 | 962 | 1083 | 1203 | MNOK |
Remaining total profit | 26,2 | 27,9 | 29,5 | 31,1 | 32,8 | 39,3 | 45,9 | 52,4 | 59,0 | 65,6 | BNOK |
Number of shares | 86,2 | 86,2 | 86,2 | 86,2 | 86,2 | 86,2 | 86,2 | 86,2 | 86,2 | 86,2 | Mill. |
Estimated additional share issue | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | Mill. |
Total number of shares at startup | 86,2 | 86,2 | 86,2 | 86,2 | 86,2 | 86,2 | 86,2 | 86,2 | 86,2 | 86,2 | Mill. |
Payback time | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | Years |
NPV | 23,9 | 25,5 | 27,2 | 28,8 | 30,4 | 37,0 | 43,5 | 50,1 | 56,7 | 74,8 | BNOK |
Share value | 277,0 | 296,0 | 315,0 | 334,0 | 353,0 | 429,1 | 505,1 | 581,1 | 657,2 | 867,5 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 20 | 107,2 | 115,6 | 124,0 | 132,4 | 140,8 | 174,4 | 208,0 | 241,6 | 275,2 | 308,8 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 15 | 79,3 | 85,9 | 92,6 | 99,2 | 105,9 | 132,5 | 159,1 | 185,8 | 212,4 | 239,0 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 10 | 51,4 | 56,3 | 61,2 | 66,1 | 71,0 | 90,7 | 110,3 | 129,9 | 149,6 | 169,2 | NOK/share |
- Garnet recovery rate increased from 22% to 37,5% to match an outtake of 200 000 t/year as announced here
- Updated USD exchange rate from 8,05 to 8,51
Resource variables | Mt | TiO2 % | Garnet % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Measured) (Selected) | 15 | 3,97 % | 44,6 % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Indicated) (Selected) | 77,5 | 3,87 % | 43,6 % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Measured + indicated) (Selected) | 92,5 | 3,89 % | 43,7 % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Inferred)(Selected) | 138,4 | 3,86 % | 43,5 % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% measured + indicated + inferred) (Selected) | 230,9 | 3,87 % | 43,6 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Measured) | 19 | 3,68 % | 43,9 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Indicated) | 105,7 | 3,51 % | 43,0 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Measured + indicated) | 124,7 | 3,53 % | 43,2 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Inferred) | 254,5 | 3,22 % | 42,5 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% measured + indicated + inferred) | 379,2 | 3,32 % | 42,7 % |
Select company estimate (2011) or 2016 updated estimate | 2016 est. |
Select Cut off grade: | 3,0 % |
Other variables | Base case | |
Estimated mine life | 50 | Years |
Open pit mining | 15 | Years |
Annual payback | 500 | MNOK |
Payback time | 4,9 | Years |
Payback rate | 1,8 | - |
Yearly takeout | 4,0 | Mt |
Exchange rate USD (2011) | 5,6070 | NOK |
Exchange rate USD 30.11.2016 | 8,51 | NOK |
Operational Cash Cost percentage in USD | 14,5 % | % |
Operational Cash Cost percentage in NOK | 85,5 % | % |
Base investment cost percentage in USD | 62,90 % | % |
Base investment cost percentage in NOK | 37,10 % | % |
Company estimated CAPEX (2011), Investment year 0: 2014 | 2014 | |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Production start up: 2016 | 2016 | |
External investor project share | 40 % | % |
No. Of shares | 517,2 | Mill. |
Additional share issue | 0 | Mill. |
Inflation adjusted 2,5 % p.a. from 2013 to 2020 (7 x 2,5%) | 2,50 % | % |
Rutile variables | Base case | |
Yearly rutile production (Selected) | 97500 | tonnes |
TiO2 recovery rate | 55 % | % |
TiO2 long term price | 1050 | USD/t |
Garnet variables | Base case | |
Yearly garnet production, High Precision Edge | 200000 | tonnes |
Yearly garnet production, High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) (Selected) | 0 | tonnes |
Yearly garnet production, High Speed Cutting (Selected) | 0 | tonnes |
Garnet grain size range | 100-400 | um |
Garnet recovery rate (Selected) | 38 % | % |
Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge: 100-180 um (26,7 %) | 27 | Mt |
Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard): 180-300 um (40 %) | 40 | Mt |
Garnet grain size - High Speed Cutting: 300-400 um (33,3 %) | 34 | Mt |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge | 445 | USD/t |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) | 150 | USD/t |
Garnet market value - High Speed Cutting | 75 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining | ||
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining | 550 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining incl. By-prod. | 185 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining, OPEX share in USD | 80 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining, OPEX share in NOK, rate 5,607 | 2637 | NOK/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining | ||
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining | 970 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining incl. By-prod. | 550 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining, OPEX share in USD | 141 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining, OPEX share in NOK, rate 5,607 | 4650 | NOK/t |
Company estimated CAPEX (2011) | ||
Company estimated CAPEX (2011) | 300 | MUSD |
Company estimated CAPEX (2011), share in USD | 189 | MUSD |
Company estimated CAPEX (2011), CAPEX share in NOK, rate 5,607 | 624 | MNOK |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining | ||
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining, OPEX share in USD | 80 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining, OPEX share in NOK, rate 8,51 | 310 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining | 390 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining | ||
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining, OPEX share in USD | 141 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining, OPEX share in NOK, rate 8,51 | 546 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining | 687 | USD/t |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) | ||
Estimated CAPEX (2016), share in USD | 189 | MUSD |
Estimated CAPEX (2016), CAPEX share in NOK, rate 8,51 | 73 | MUSD |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) | 262 | MUSD |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) inflation adjusted 2014-2018, 2,5% p.a. | 27 | MUSD |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining inflation adjusted 2016-2020, 2,5% p.a. | 40 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining inflation adjusted 2016-2020, 2,5% p.a. | 71 | USD/t |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) inflation adjusted for investment year 0 = 2018 (Selected) | 289 | MUSD |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining inflation adjusted for production start up 2020 (Selected) | 430 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining inflation adjusted for production start up 2020 (Selected) | 758 | USD/t |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) change | -3,6 % | % |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining change | -21,8 % | % |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining change | -21,8 % | % |
Garnet Water Jet qualities | micron | |
High Precision Edge | 100-180 | um |
High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) | 180-300 | um |
High Speed Cutting | 300-400 | um |
CAPEX and OPEX; 2,5% inflation adjusted p.a. for startup 2020 | CAPEX | OPEX 1 | OPEX 2 | Inflation |
2011 | 2,50 % | |||
2012 | 2,50 % | |||
2013 | 2,50 % | |||
2014 | 262 | 2,50 % | ||
2015 | 269 | 2,50 % | ||
2016 | 275 | 390 | 687 | 2,50 % |
2017 | 282 | 399 | 704 | 2,50 % |
2018 | 289 | 409 | 722 | 2,50 % |
2019 | 420 | 740 | 2,50 % | |
2020 | 430 | 758 | 2,50 % |
NORDIC RUTILE | -20% | -15% | -10% | -5% | Base case | +20% | +40% | +60% | +80% | +100% | Unit |
TiO2 resource estimate (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 3% | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | Mt |
TiO2 concentration (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 3% | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | % |
TiO2 resource estimate (inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | Mt |
TiO2 concentration (inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | % |
TiO2 total (measured + indicated + inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | Mt |
TiO2 concentration (measured + indicated + inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | % |
Yearly takeout | 3,6 | 3,9 | 4,1 | 4,3 | 4,6 | 5,5 | 6,4 | 7,3 | 8,2 | 9,1 | Mt |
TiO2 recovery rate | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | % |
Yearly TiO2 production | 78000 | 82875 | 87750 | 92625 | 97500 | 117000 | 136500 | 156000 | 175500 | 195000 | t |
Estimated mine life | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | Years |
Garnet concentration (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 3% | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | % |
Garnet resource estimate, (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 3% | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | Mt |
Garnet concentration (inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | % |
Garnet resource estimate, (inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | Mt |
Concentration of Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge: 100-180 um (26,7 %) | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | % |
Concentration of Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard): 180-300 um (40 %) | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | % |
Concentration of Garnet grain size - High Speed Cutting: 300-400 um (33,3 %) | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | % |
Garnet total (measured + indicated + inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | Mt |
Garnet recovery rate | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | 37,5 % | % |
Yearly production Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge: 100-180 um (26,7 %) | 160689 | 170732 | 180775 | 190818 | 200861 | 241033 | 281206 | 321378 | 361550 | 401722 | t |
Yearly production Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard): 180-300 um (40 %) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | t |
Yearly production Garnet grain size - High Speed Cutting: 300-400 um (33,3 %) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | t |
TiO2 95% market value | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | USD/ton |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | USD/ton |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | USD/ton |
Garnet market value - High Speed Cutting | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | USD/ton |
Yearly sales income TiO2 | 82 | 87 | 92 | 97 | 102 | 123 | 143 | 164 | 184 | 205 | MUSD |
Yearly sales income garnet, all qualities | 72 | 76 | 80 | 85 | 89 | 107 | 125 | 143 | 161 | 179 | MUSD |
Yearly sales income (TiO2 + garnet) | 153 | 163 | 173 | 182 | 192 | 230 | 268 | 307 | 345 | 384 | MUSD |
Operational cost per ton TiO2 & garnet, Open pit mining | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 | USD/ton |
OPEX (annual production cost), Open pit mining | 33,5 | 35,6 | 37,7 | 39,8 | 41,9 | 50,3 | 58,7 | 67,1 | 75,5 | 83,9 | MUSD |
Operational cost per ton TiO2 & garnet, Underground mining | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 | USD/ton |
OPEX (annual production cost), Underground mining | 59,2 | 62,9 | 66,6 | 70,2 | 73,9 | 88,7 | 103,5 | 118,3 | 133,1 | 147,9 | MUSD |
Exchange rate USD/NOK 30.11.2016 | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | 8,51 | NOK/USD |
Yearly profit, Open pit mining | 1020 | 1084 | 1148 | 1211 | 1275 | 1530 | 1785 | 2040 | 2295 | 2550 | MNOK |
Yearly profit, Underground mining | 802 | 852 | 902 | 952 | 1003 | 1203 | 1404 | 1604 | 1805 | 2005 | MNOK |
Total profit | 43,7 | 46,4 | 49,2 | 51,9 | 54,6 | 65,6 | 76,5 | 87,4 | 98,3 | 109,3 | BNOK |
Total TiO2 production @ Cut Off 3% | 3,9 | 4,2 | 4,4 | 4,7 | 4,9 | 5,9 | 6,9 | 7,9 | 8,8 | 9,8 | Mt |
Total garnet production @ Cut Off 3% | 8,1 | 8,6 | 9,1 | 9,6 | 10,1 | 12,2 | 14,2 | 16,2 | 18,2 | 20,3 | Mt |
TiO2 utilization | 44 % | 47 % | 50 % | 52 % | 55 % | 66 % | 77 % | 88 % | 99 % | 100 % | % |
High Precision Edge utilization | 30 % | 32 % | 34 % | 36 % | 38 % | 45 % | 53 % | 60 % | 68 % | 75 % | % |
High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) utilization | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | % |
High Speed Cutting utilization | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | % |
Base investment | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 | BNOK |
Payback cost | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | BNOK |
Total investment cost | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | BNOK |
External investor project share | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | % |
Remaining investment cost | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | BNOK |
Remaining yearly profit, Open pit mining | 612 | 650 | 689 | 727 | 765 | 918 | 1071 | 1224 | 1377 | 1530 | MNOK |
Remaining yearly profit, Underground mining | 481 | 511 | 541 | 571 | 602 | 722 | 842 | 962 | 1083 | 1203 | MNOK |
Remaining total profit | 26,2 | 27,9 | 29,5 | 31,1 | 32,8 | 39,3 | 45,9 | 52,4 | 59,0 | 65,6 | BNOK |
Number of shares | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | Mill. |
Estimated additional share issue | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | Mill. |
Total number of shares at startup | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | Mill. |
Payback time | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | Years |
NPV | 23,9 | 25,5 | 27,2 | 28,8 | 30,4 | 37,0 | 43,5 | 50,1 | 56,7 | 74,8 | BNOK |
Share value | 46,2 | 49,3 | 52,5 | 55,7 | 58,8 | 71,5 | 84,2 | 96,9 | 109,5 | 144,6 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 20 | 17,9 | 19,3 | 20,7 | 22,1 | 23,5 | 29,1 | 34,7 | 40,3 | 45,9 | 51,5 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 15 | 13,2 | 14,3 | 15,4 | 16,5 | 17,7 | 22,1 | 26,5 | 31,0 | 35,4 | 39,8 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 10 | 8,6 | 9,4 | 10,2 | 11,0 | 11,8 | 15,1 | 18,4 | 21,7 | 24,9 | 28,2 | NOK/share |
Resource variables | Mt | TiO2 % | Garnet % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Measured) (Selected) | 15 | 3,97 % | 44,6 % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Indicated) (Selected) | 77,5 | 3,87 % | 43,6 % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Measured + indicated) (Selected) | 92,5 | 3,89 % | 43,7 % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Inferred)(Selected) | 138,4 | 3,86 % | 43,5 % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% measured + indicated + inferred) (Selected) | 230,9 | 3,87 % | 43,6 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Measured) | 19 | 3,68 % | 43,9 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Indicated) | 105,7 | 3,51 % | 43,0 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Measured + indicated) | 124,7 | 3,53 % | 43,2 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Inferred) | 254,5 | 3,22 % | 42,5 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% measured + indicated + inferred) | 379,2 | 3,32 % | 42,7 % |
Select company estimate (2011) or 2016 updated estimate | 2016 est. |
Select Cut off grade: | 3,0 % |
Other variables | Base case | |
Estimated mine life | 50 | Years |
Open pit mining | 15 | Years |
Annual payback | 500 | MNOK |
Payback time | 4,7 | Years |
Payback rate | 1,8 | - |
Yearly takeout | 4,0 | Mt |
Exchange rate USD (2011) | 5,6070 | NOK |
Exchange rate USD 29.09.2016 | 8,05 | NOK |
Operational Cash Cost percentage in USD | 14,5 % | % |
Operational Cash Cost percentage in NOK | 85,5 % | % |
Base investment cost percentage in USD | 62,90 % | % |
Base investment cost percentage in NOK | 37,10 % | % |
Company estimated CAPEX (2011), Investment year 0: 2014 | 2014 | |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Production start up: 2016 | 2016 | |
External investor project share | 40 % | % |
No. Of shares | 517,2 | Mill. |
Additional share issue | 0 | Mill. |
Inflation adjusted 2,5 % p.a. from 2013 to 2020 (7 x 2,5%) | 2,50 % | % |
Rutile variables | Base case | |
Yearly rutile production (Selected) | 97500 | tonnes |
TiO2 recovery rate | 55 % | % |
TiO2 long term price | 1050 | USD/t |
Garnet variables | Base case | |
Yearly garnet production, High Precision Edge | 100000 | tonnes |
Yearly garnet production, High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) (Selected) | tonnes | |
Yearly garnet production, High Speed Cutting (Selected) | tonnes | |
Garnet grain size range | 100-400 | um |
Garnet recovery rate (Selected) | 22 % | % |
Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge: 100-180 um (26,7 %) | 27 | Mt |
Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard): 180-300 um (40 %) | 40 | Mt |
Garnet grain size - High Speed Cutting: 300-400 um (33,3 %) | 34 | Mt |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge | 445 | USD/t |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) | 150 | USD/t |
Garnet market value - High Speed Cutting | 75 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining | ||
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining | 550 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining incl. By-prod. | 185 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining, OPEX share in USD | 80 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining, OPEX share in NOK, rate 5,607 | 2637 | NOK/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining | ||
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining | 970 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining incl. By-prod. | 550 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining, OPEX share in USD | 141 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining, OPEX share in NOK, rate 5,607 | 4650 | NOK/t |
Company estimated CAPEX (2011) | ||
Company estimated CAPEX (2011) | 300 | MUSD |
Company estimated CAPEX (2011), share in USD | 189 | MUSD |
Company estimated CAPEX (2011), CAPEX share in NOK, rate 5,607 | 624 | MNOK |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining | ||
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining, OPEX share in USD | 80 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining, OPEX share in NOK, rate 8,05 | 328 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining | 407 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining | ||
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining, OPEX share in USD | 141 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining, OPEX share in NOK, rate 8,05 | 578 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining | 718 | USD/t |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) | ||
Estimated CAPEX (2016), share in USD | 189 | MUSD |
Estimated CAPEX (2016), CAPEX share in NOK, rate 8,05 | 78 | MUSD |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) | 266 | MUSD |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) inflation adjusted 2014-2018, 2,5% p.a. | 28 | MUSD |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining inflation adjusted 2016-2020, 2,5% p.a. | 42 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining inflation adjusted 2016-2020, 2,5% p.a. | 75 | USD/t |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) inflation adjusted for investment year 0 = 2018 (Selected) | 294 | MUSD |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining inflation adjusted for production start up 2020 (Selected) | 450 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining inflation adjusted for production start up 2020 (Selected) | 793 | USD/t |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) change | -2,0 % | % |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining change | -18,3 % | % |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining change | -18,3 % | % |
Garnet Water Jet qualities | micron | |
High Precision Edge | 100-180 | um |
High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) | 180-300 | um |
High Speed Cutting | 300-400 | um |
CAPEX and OPEX; 2,5% inflation adjusted p.a. for startup 2020 | CAPEX | OPEX 1 | OPEX 2 | Inflation |
2011 | 2,50 % | |||
2012 | 2,50 % | |||
2013 | 2,50 % | |||
2014 | 266 | 2,50 % | ||
2015 | 273 | 2,50 % | ||
2016 | 280 | 407 | 718 | 2,50 % |
2017 | 287 | 417 | 736 | 2,50 % |
2018 | 294 | 428 | 755 | 2,50 % |
2019 | 439 | 774 | 2,50 % | |
2020 | 450 | 793 | 2,50 % |
NORDIC RUTILE | -20% | -15% | -10% | -5% | Base case | +20% | +40% | +60% | +80% | +100% | Unit |
TiO2 resource estimate (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 3% | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | Mt |
TiO2 concentration (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 3% | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | % |
TiO2 resource estimate (inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | Mt |
TiO2 concentration (inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | % |
TiO2 total (measured + indicated + inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | Mt |
TiO2 concentration (measured + indicated + inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | % |
Yearly takeout | 3,6 | 3,9 | 4,1 | 4,3 | 4,6 | 5,5 | 6,4 | 7,3 | 8,2 | 9,1 | Mt |
TiO2 recovery rate | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | % |
Yearly TiO2 production | 78000 | 82875 | 87750 | 92625 | 97500 | 117000 | 136500 | 156000 | 175500 | 195000 | t |
Estimated mine life | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | Years |
Garnet concentration (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 3% | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | % |
Garnet resource estimate, (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 3% | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | 40,5 | Mt |
Garnet concentration (inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | % |
Garnet resource estimate, (inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | Mt |
Concentration of Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge: 100-180 um (26,7 %) | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | 26,8 % | % |
Concentration of Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard): 180-300 um (40 %) | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | 40,3 % | % |
Concentration of Garnet grain size - High Speed Cutting: 300-400 um (33,3 %) | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | 33,6 % | % |
Garnet total (measured + indicated + inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | 100,7 | Mt |
Garnet recovery rate | 22,0 % | 22,0 % | 22,0 % | 22,0 % | 22,0 % | 22,0 % | 22,0 % | 22,0 % | 22,0 % | 22,0 % | % |
Yearly production Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge: 100-180 um (26,7 %) | 94271 | 100163 | 106055 | 111947 | 117839 | 141406 | 164974 | 188542 | 212109 | 235677 | t |
Yearly production Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard): 180-300 um (40 %) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | t |
Yearly production Garnet grain size - High Speed Cutting: 300-400 um (33,3 %) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | t |
TiO2 95% market value | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | USD/ton |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | USD/ton |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | USD/ton |
Garnet market value - High Speed Cutting | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | USD/ton |
Yearly sales income TiO2 | 82 | 87 | 92 | 97 | 102 | 123 | 143 | 164 | 184 | 205 | MUSD |
Yearly sales income garnet, all qualities | 42 | 45 | 47 | 50 | 52 | 63 | 73 | 84 | 94 | 105 | MUSD |
Yearly sales income (TiO2 + garnet) | 124 | 132 | 139 | 147 | 155 | 186 | 217 | 248 | 279 | 310 | MUSD |
Operational cost per ton TiO2 & garnet, Open pit mining | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | USD/ton |
OPEX (annual production cost), Open pit mining | 35,1 | 37,3 | 39,4 | 41,6 | 43,8 | 52,6 | 61,4 | 70,1 | 78,9 | 87,7 | MUSD |
Operational cost per ton TiO2 & garnet, Underground mining | 793 | 793 | 793 | 793 | 793 | 793 | 793 | 793 | 793 | 793 | USD/ton |
OPEX (annual production cost), Underground mining | 61,8 | 65,7 | 69,6 | 73,4 | 77,3 | 92,8 | 108,2 | 123,7 | 139,2 | 154,6 | MUSD |
Exchange rate USD/NOK 29.09.2016 | 8,05 | 8,05 | 8,05 | 8,05 | 8,05 | 8,05 | 8,05 | 8,05 | 8,05 | 8,05 | NOK/USD |
Yearly profit, Open pit mining | 715 | 759 | 804 | 849 | 893 | 1072 | 1251 | 1429 | 1608 | 1787 | MNOK |
Yearly profit, Underground mining | 499 | 530 | 562 | 593 | 624 | 749 | 874 | 998 | 1123 | 1248 | MNOK |
Total profit | 28,4 | 30,2 | 31,9 | 33,7 | 35,5 | 42,6 | 49,7 | 56,8 | 63,9 | 71,0 | BNOK |
Total TiO2 production @ Cut Off 3% | 3,9 | 4,2 | 4,4 | 4,7 | 4,9 | 5,9 | 6,9 | 7,9 | 8,8 | 9,8 | Mt |
Total garnet production @ Cut Off 3% | 4,8 | 5,0 | 5,3 | 5,6 | 5,9 | 7,1 | 8,3 | 9,5 | 10,7 | 11,9 | Mt |
TiO2 utilization | 44 % | 47 % | 50 % | 52 % | 55 % | 66 % | 77 % | 88 % | 99 % | 100 % | % |
High Precision Edge utilization | 18 % | 19 % | 20 % | 21 % | 22 % | 27 % | 31 % | 35 % | 40 % | 44 % | % |
High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) utilization | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | % |
High Speed Cutting utilization | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | % |
Base investment | 2,1 | 2,1 | 2,1 | 2,1 | 2,1 | 2,1 | 2,1 | 2,1 | 2,1 | 2,1 | BNOK |
Payback cost | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | BNOK |
Total investment cost | 3,8 | 3,8 | 3,8 | 3,8 | 3,8 | 3,8 | 3,8 | 3,8 | 3,8 | 3,8 | BNOK |
External investor project share | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | % |
Remaining investment cost | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | BNOK |
Remaining yearly profit, Open pit mining | 429 | 456 | 482 | 509 | 536 | 643 | 750 | 858 | 965 | 1072 | MNOK |
Remaining yearly profit, Underground mining | 299 | 318 | 337 | 356 | 374 | 449 | 524 | 599 | 674 | 749 | MNOK |
Remaining total profit | 17,0 | 18,1 | 19,2 | 20,2 | 21,3 | 25,6 | 29,8 | 34,1 | 38,3 | 42,6 | BNOK |
Number of shares | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | Mill. |
Estimated additional share issue | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | Mill. |
Total number of shares at startup | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | Mill. |
Payback time | 4,7 | 4,7 | 4,7 | 4,7 | 4,7 | 4,7 | 4,7 | 4,7 | 4,7 | 4,7 | Years |
NPV | 14,8 | 15,8 | 16,9 | 18,0 | 19,0 | 23,3 | 27,5 | 31,8 | 36,1 | 51,8 | BNOK |
Share value | 28,5 | 30,6 | 32,6 | 34,7 | 36,8 | 45,0 | 53,2 | 61,5 | 69,7 | 100,1 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 20 | 10,9 | 11,9 | 12,8 | 13,8 | 14,8 | 18,6 | 22,4 | 26,3 | 30,1 | 33,9 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 15 | 8,0 | 8,8 | 9,6 | 10,4 | 11,1 | 14,2 | 17,4 | 20,5 | 23,6 | 26,7 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 10 | 5,1 | 5,7 | 6,3 | 6,9 | 7,5 | 9,9 | 12,3 | 14,7 | 17,1 | 19,4 | NOK/share |
- Adjusted CAPEX for investment year zero from 2014 to 2018 and OPEX for production startup from 2016 to 2020.
- Added garnet qualities and assumed that grain sizes has linear representation
- P/E=15 Base case increased from 5,3 to 8,1 after updated CAPEX and OPEX
Resource variables | Mt | TiO2 % | Garnet % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Measured) | 15 | 3,97 % | 44,6 % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Indicated) | 77,5 | 3,87 % | 43,6 % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Measured + indicated) | 92,5 | 3,89 % | 43,7 % |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Inferred) | 138,4 | 3,86 % | 43,5 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Measured) | 19 | 3,68 % | 43,9 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Indicated) | 105,7 | 3,51 % | 43,0 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Measured + indicated) | 124,7 | 3,53 % | 43,2 % |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Inferred) | 254,5 | 3,22 % | 42,5 % |
Select Cut off grade | 3,0 % |
Other variables | Base case | |
Estimated mine life | 50 | Years |
Open pit mining | 15 | Years |
Annual payback | 500 | MNOK |
Payback time | 4,8 | Years |
Yearly rutile production | 95 000 | tonnes |
Yearly takeout | 4,0 | Mt |
TiO2 recovery rate | 55 % | % |
Yearly garnet production, High Precision Edge
|
100 000 | tonnes |
Yearly garnet production, High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard)
|
- | tonnes |
Yearly garnet production, High Speed Cutting
|
- | tonnes |
Garnet grain size range | 100-400 | um |
Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge: 100-200 um (33,3 %) | 33,5 | Mt |
Garnet grain size - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard): 200-300 um (33,3 %) | 33,5 | Mt |
Garnet grain size - High Speed Cutting: 300-400 um (33,3 %) | 33,5 | Mt |
TiO2 long term price | 1 000 | USD/t |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge | 365 | USD/t |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) | 55 | USD/t |
Garnet market value - High Speed Cutting | 25 | USD/t |
Exchange rate USD (2011) | 5,6070 | NOK |
Exchange rate USD 19.09.2016 | 8,2855 | NOK |
Operational Cash Cost percentage in USD | 14,5 % | % |
Operational Cash Cost percentage in NOK | 85,5 % | % |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining | ||
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining | 550 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining incl. By-prod. | 185 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining, OPEX share in USD | 79,8 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Open pit mining, OPEX share in NOK, rate 5,607 | 2 637 | NOK/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining | ||
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining | 970 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining incl. By-prod. | 550 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining, OPEX share in USD | 140,7 | USD/t |
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Underground mining, OPEX share in NOK, rate 5,607 | 4 650 | NOK/t |
Base investment cost percentage in USD | 62,90 % | % |
Base investment cost percentage in NOK | 37,10 % | % |
Company estimated CAPEX (2011) | ||
Company estimated CAPEX (2011) | 300 | MUSD |
Company estimated CAPEX (2011), share in USD | 189 | MUSD |
Company estimated CAPEX (2011), CAPEX share in NOK, rate 5,607 | 624 | MNOK |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining | ||
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining, OPEX share in USD | 79,8 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining, OPEX share in NOK, rate 8,2855 | 318,2 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining | 3981 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining | ||
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining, OPEX share in USD | 140,7 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining, OPEX share in NOK, rate 8,2855 | 561,2 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining | 7022 | USD/t |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) | ||
Estimated CAPEX (2016), share in USD | 188,7 | MUSD |
Estimated CAPEX (2016), CAPEX share in NOK, rate 8,2855 | 75,3 | MUSD |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) | 2643 | MUSD |
Company estimated CAPEX (2011), Investment year 0: 2014 | ||
Company estimated OPEX (2011), Production start up: 2016 | ||
Estimated CAPEX (2016) inflation adjusted 2014-2018, 2,5% p.a. | 27,4 | MUSD |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining inflation adjusted 2016-2020, 2,5% p.a. | 41,3 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining inflation adjusted 2016-2020, 2,5% p.a. | 72,9 | USD/t |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) inflation adjusted for investment year 0 = 2018 | 291 | MUSD |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining inflation adjusted for producion start up 2020 | 439 | USD/t |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining inflation adjusted for producion start up 2020 | 775 | USD/t |
Estimated CAPEX (2016) change | -2,9 % | % |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Open pit mining change | -20,1 % | % |
Estimated OPEX (2016), Underground mining change | -20,1 % | % |
Payback rate | 1,8 | - |
External investor project share | 40 % | % |
No. Of shares | 517,2 | Mill. |
Additional share issue | 0 | Mill. |
Garnet Water Jet qualities | micron | |
High Precision Edge | 100-200 | um |
High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) | 200-300 | um |
High Speed Cutting | 300-400 | um |
CAPEX and OPEX; 2,5% inflation adjusted p.a. for startup 2020 |
CAPEX (MUSD) |
OPEX open pit (USD/t) | OPEX under-ground (USD/t) | Inflation p.a. |
2011 | 2,50 % | |||
2012 | 2,50 % | |||
2013 | 2,50 % | |||
2014 | 2643 | 2,50 % | ||
2015 | 271 | 2,50 % | ||
2016 | 277 | 3981 | 7022 | 2,50 % |
2017 | 284 | 408 | 719 | 2,50 % |
2018 | 291 | 418 | 737 | 2,50 % |
2019 | 429 | 756 | 2,50 % | |
2020 | 439 | 775 | 2,50 % |
NORDIC RUTILE | -20% | -15% | -10% | -5% | Base case | +20% | +40% | +60% | +80% | +100% | Unit |
TiO2 resource estimate (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 3% | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | Mt |
TiO2 concentration (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 3% | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | % |
TiO2 resource estimate (inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | Mt |
TiO2 concentration (inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | % |
TiO2 total (measured + indicated + inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | 8,9 | Mt |
TiO2 concentration (measured + indicated + inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | 3,87 % | % |
Yearly takeout | 4,0 | 4,0 | 4,0 | 4,0 | 4,0 | 4,0 | 4,0 | 4,0 | 4,0 | 4,0 | Mt |
TiO2 recovery rate | 61 % | 61 % | 61 % | 61 % | 61 % | 61 % | 61 % | 61 % | 61 % | 61 % | % |
Yearly TiO2 production | 76 000 | 80 750 | 85 500 | 90 250 | 95 000 | 114 000 | 133 000 | 152 000 | 171 000 | 190 000 | t |
Estimated mine life | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | Years |
Garnet concentration (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 3% | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | % |
Garnet resource estimate, (measured + indicated) @ Cut Off 3% | 40,4 | 40,4 | 40,4 | 40,4 | 40,4 | 40,4 | 40,4 | 40,4 | 40,4 | 40,4 | Mt |
Garnet concentration (inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | % |
Garnet resource estimate, (inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | Mt |
Concentration of Garnet grain size 100-200 um (33,3 %) | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | % |
Concentration of Garnet grain size 200-300 um (33,3 %) | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | % |
Concentration of Garnet grain size 300-400 um (33,3 %) | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | 33,5 % | % |
Garnet total (measured + indicated + inferred) @ Cut Off 3% | 100,6 | 100,6 | 100,6 | 100,6 | 100,6 | 100,6 | 100,6 | 100,6 | 100,6 | 100,6 | Mt |
Yearly production Garnet grain size 100-200 um (33,3 %) | 80000 | 85000 | 90000 | 95000 | 100000 | 120000 | 140000 | 160000 | 180000 | 200000 | t |
Yearly production Garnet grain size 200-300 um (33,3 %) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | t |
Yearly production Garnet grain size 300-400 um (33,3 %) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | t |
TiO2 95% market value | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | USD/ton |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | USD/ton |
Garnet market value - High Precision Edge, (Industry Standard) | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | USD/ton |
Garnet market value - High Speed Cutting | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | USD/ton |
Yearly sales income TiO2 | 76 | 81 | 86 | 90 | 95 | 114 | 133 | 152 | 171 | 190 | MUSD |
Yearly sales income garnet, all qualities | 29 | 31 | 33 | 35 | 37 | 44 | 51 | 58 | 66 | 73 | MUSD |
Yearly sales income (TiO2 + garnet) | 105 | 112 | 118 | 125 | 132 | 158 | 184 | 210 | 237 | 263 | MUSD |
Operational cost per ton TiO2 & garnet, Open pit mining | 439 | 439 | 439 | 439 | 439 | 439 | 439 | 439 | 439 | 439 | USD/ton |
OPEX (annual production cost), Open pit mining | 33,4 | 35,5 | 37,6 | 39,6 | 41,7 | 50,1 | 58,4 | 66,8 | 75,1 | 83,5 | MUSD |
Operational cost per ton TiO2 & garnet, Underground mining | 775 | 775 | 775 | 775 | 775 | 775 | 775 | 775 | 775 | 775 | USD/ton |
OPEX (annual production cost), Underground mining | 58,9 | 62,6 | 66,2 | 69,9 | 73,6 | 88,3 | 103,0 | 117,8 | 132,5 | 147,2 | MUSD |
Exchange rate USD/NOK 19.09.2016 | 8,29 | 8,29 | 8,29 | 8,29 | 8,29 | 8,29 | 8,29 | 8,29 | 8,29 | 8,29 | NOK/USD |
Yearly profit, Open pit mining | 595 | 632 | 669 | 707 | 744 | 893 | 1041 | 1190 | 1339 | 1488 | MNOK |
Yearly profit, Underground mining | 384 | 408 | 432 | 456 | 480 | 576 | 672 | 768 | 863 | 959 | MNOK |
Total profit | 22,4 | 23,8 | 25,2 | 26,5 | 27,9 | 33,5 | 39,1 | 44,7 | 50,3 | 55,9 | BNOK |
Total TiO2 production @ Cut Off 3% | 3,80 | 4,04 | 4,28 | 4,51 | 4,75 | 5,70 | 6,65 | 7,60 | 8,55 | 9,50 | Mt |
Total garnet production @ Cut Off 3% | 4,00 | 4,25 | 4,50 | 4,75 | 5,00 | 6,00 | 7,00 | 8,00 | 9,00 | 10,00 | Mt |
TiO2 utilization | 42,5 % | 45,2 % | 47,8 % | 50,5 % | 53,1 % | 63,8 % | 74,4 % | 85,0 % | 95,6 % | 106,3 % | % |
Garnet High Precision Edge utilization |
11,9 % | 12,7 % | 13,4 % | 14,2 % | 14,9 % | 17,9 % | 20,9 % | 23,9 % | 26,9 % | 29,8 % | % |
Garnet High Precision Edge, (IndustryStandard) utilization |
0,0 % | 0,0 % | 0,0 % | 0,0 % | 0,0 % | 0,0 % | 0,0 % | 0,0 % | 0,0 % | 0,0 % | % |
Garnet High Speed Cutting utilization | 0,0 % | 0,0 % | 0,0 % | 0,0 % | 0,0 % | 0,0 % | 0,0 % | 0,0 % | 0,0 % | 0,0 % | % |
Base investment | 2,4 | 2,4 | 2,4 | 2,4 | 2,4 | 2,4 | 2,4 | 2,4 | 2,4 | 2,4 | BNOK |
Payback cost | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | BNOK |
Total investment cost | 4,2 | 4,2 | 4,2 | 4,2 | 4,2 | 4,2 | 4,2 | 4,2 | 4,2 | 4,2 | BNOK |
External investor project share | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | % |
Remaining investment cost | 2,5 | 2,5 | 2,5 | 2,5 | 2,5 | 2,5 | 2,5 | 2,5 | 2,5 | 2,5 | BNOK |
Remaining yearly profit, Open pit mining | 357 | 379 | 402 | 424 | 446 | 536 | 625 | 714 | 803 | 893 | MNOK |
Remaining yearly profit, Underground mining | 230 | 245 | 259 | 273 | 288 | 345 | 403 | 461 | 518 | 576 | MNOK |
Remaining total profit | 13,4 | 14,3 | 15,1 | 15,9 | 16,8 | 20,1 | 23,5 | 26,8 | 30,2 | 33,5 | BNOK |
Number of shares | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | Mill. |
Estimated additional share issue | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | Mill. |
Total number of shares at startup | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | Mill. |
Payback time | 4,8 | 4,8 | 4,8 | 4,8 | 4,8 | 4,8 | 4,8 | 4,8 | 4,8 | 4,8 | Years |
NPV | 10,9 | 11,7 | 12,6 | 13,4 | 14,2 | 17,6 | 20,9 | 24,3 | 27,7 | 42,1 | BNOK |
Share value | 21,0 | 22,7 | 24,3 | 25,9 | 27,5 | 34,0 | 40,5 | 47,0 | 53,5 | 81,4 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 20 | 8,9 | 9,8 | 9,3 | 10,0 | 10,8 | 14,0 | 17,1 | 20,3 | 23,4 | 26,6 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 15 | 5,5 | 6,1 | 6,8 | 7,4 | 8,1 | 10,6 | 13,2 | 15,8 | 18,4 | 21,0 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 10 | 3,2 | 3,7 | 4,3 | 4,8 | 5,3 | 7,3 | 9,3 | 11,4 | 13,4 | 15,4 | NOK/share |
- Garnet recovery grade is set to 5% based on annual production of approx. 100 000 tonnes.
- Only TiO2 resource estimates @ Cut off grade 3% are included.
- Mine life is set to 50 years independent of estimated resource size and annual production.
- Share value based on total resource estimate increased from 18,6 NOK/share to 30,2 NOK/share because of increased resource estimate.
- PE=15 decreased from 7,6 NOK/share to 5,3 NOK/share mainly because of lower USD exhange rate (8,58 -> 8,24)
Resource variables | Mt | TiO2 % | Garnet % |
TiO2 Mt
|
Garnet Mt |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Measured) | 15 | 3,97 % | 44,6 % | 0,6 | 6,7 |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Indicated) | 77,5 | 3,87 % | 43,6 % | 3,0 | 33,9 |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Measured + indicated) | 92,5 | 3,89 % | 43,7 % | 3,6 | 40,4 |
TiO2 Cut off 3% (Inferred) | 138,4 | 3,86 % | 43,5 % | 5,3 | 60,2 |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Measured) | 19 | 3,68 % | 43,9 % | 0,7 | 8,3 |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Indicated) | 105,7 | 3,51 % | 43,0 % | 3,7 | 45,5 |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Measured + indicated) | 124,7 | 3,53 % | 43,2 % | 4,4 | 53,9 |
TiO2 Cut off 2% (Inferred) | 254,5 | 3,22 % | 42,5 % | 8,2 | 108,2 |
Other variables | ||
Estimated mine life | 50 | Years |
Payback time | 5 | Years |
Yearly rutile production | 95000 | tonnes |
TiO2 recovery rate | 55 % | % |
Garnet recovery rate | 5 % | % |
TiO2 long term price | 1000 | USD/t |
Garnet market value | 315 | USD/t |
OPEX | 550 | USD/t |
Exchange rate | 8,24 | NOK |
Base investment cost | 2,8 | BNOK |
Payback rate | 1,8 | - |
External investor project share | 40 % | % |
No. Of shares | 517,2328 | Mill. |
Additional share issue | 0 | Mill. |
NORDIC RUTILE | -20% | -15% | -10% | -5% | Base case | +20% | +40% | +60% | +80% | +100% | Unit |
TiO2 resource estimate (measured + indicated) Cut Off 3% | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | 92,5 | Mt |
TiO2 concentration (measured + indicated) 3% Cut Off | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | 3,89 % | % |
TiO2 resource estimate (inferred) Cut Off 3% | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | 138,4 | Mt |
TiO2 concentration (inferred) 3% Cut Off | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | 3,86 % | % |
TiO2 recovery rate | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | % |
TiO2 total (measured + indicated + inferred) 3% Cut Off | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 | Mt |
Yearly TiO2 production | 76000 | 80750 | 85500 | 90250 | 95000 | 114000 | 133000 | 152000 | 171000 | 190000 | t |
Estimated mine life | 50,0 | 50,0 | 50,0 | 50,0 | 50,0 | 50,0 | 50,0 | 50,0 | 50,0 | 50,0 | Years |
Garnet concentration (measured + indicated) 3% Cut Off | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | 43,7 % | % |
Garnet resource estimate, (measured + indicated) Cut Off 3% | 40,4 | 40,4 | 40,4 | 40,4 | 40,4 | 40,4 | 40,4 | 40,4 | 40,4 | 40,4 | Mt |
Garnet concentration (inferredd) 3% Cut Off | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | 43,5 % | % |
Garnet resource estimate, (inferred) Cut Off 3% | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | 60,2 | Mt |
Garnet recovery rate | 5 % | 5 % | 5 % | 5 % | 5 % | 5 % | 5 % | 5 % | 5 % | 5 % | % |
Garnet total (measured + indicated + inferred) 3% Cut Off | 5,0 | 5,0 | 5,0 | 5,0 | 5,0 | 5,0 | 5,0 | 5,0 | 5,0 | 5,0 | Mt |
Yearly garnet production | 80501 | 85533 | 90564 | 95595 | 100627 | 120752 | 140877 | 161002 | 181128 | 201253 | t |
TiO2 95% market value | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | USD/ton |
Garnet market value | 315 | 315 | 315 | 315 | 315 | 315 | 315 | 315 | 315 | 315 | USD/ton |
Yearly sales (TiO2 + garnet) | 101 | 108 | 114 | 120 | 127 | 152 | 177 | 203 | 228 | 253 | MUSD |
Operational cost per ton TiO2 & garnet | 550 | 550 | 550 | 550 | 550 | 550 | 550 | 550 | 550 | 550 | USD/ton |
OPEX (annual production cost) | 41,8 | 44,4 | 47,0 | 49,6 | 52,3 | 62,7 | 73,2 | 83,6 | 94,1 | 104,5 | MUSD |
Exchange rate USD/NOK | 8,24 | 8,24 | 8,24 | 8,24 | 8,24 | 8,24 | 8,24 | 8,24 | 8,24 | 8,24 | NOK/USD |
Yearly profit | 491 | 521 | 552 | 583 | 613 | 736 | 859 | 982 | 1104 | 1227 | MNOK |
Base investment | 2,8 | 2,8 | 2,8 | 2,8 | 2,8 | 2,8 | 2,8 | 2,8 | 2,8 | 2,8 | BNOK |
Payback cost | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 | BNOK |
Total investment cost | 4,6 | 4,6 | 4,6 | 4,6 | 4,6 | 4,6 | 4,6 | 4,6 | 4,6 | 4,6 | BNOK |
External investor project share | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | 40 % | % |
Remaining investment cost | 2,8 | 2,8 | 2,8 | 2,8 | 2,8 | 2,8 | 2,8 | 2,8 | 2,8 | 2,8 | BNOK |
Remaining yearly profit | 294 | 313 | 331 | 350 | 368 | 442 | 515 | 589 | 663 | 736 | MNOK |
Number of shares | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | Mill. |
Estimated additional share issue | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | Mill. |
Total number of shares at startup | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | Mill. |
Payback time | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | Years |
NPV | 12,0 | 12,9 | 13,8 | 14,7 | 15,6 | 19,3 | 23,0 | 26,7 | 30,4 | 34,0 | BNOK |
Share value | 23,1 | 24,9 | 26,7 | 28,5 | 30,2 | 37,4 | 44,5 | 51,6 | 58,7 | 65,8 | NOK |
Share value for P/E = 20 | 6,0 | 6,8 | 7,5 | 8,2 | 8,9 | 11,7 | 14,6 | 17,4 | 20,3 | 23,1 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 15 | 3,2 | 3,7 | 4,3 | 4,8 | 5,3 | 7,5 | 9,6 | 11,7 | 13,9 | 16,0 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 10 | 0,4 | 0,7 | 1,1 | 1,4 | 1,8 | 3,2 | 4,6 | 6,0 | 7,5 | 8,9 | NOK/share |
NORDIC RUTILE | Low | Base case - 35% | Medium low | Base case - 15% | Base case | Base case + 15% | Medium high | Base case + 35% | High | Unit |
Resource estimate | 77,2 | 100,3 | 115,7 | 131,2 | 154,3 | 177,4 | 192,9 | 208,3 | 231,5 | Mill. tonnes |
Historic resource estimate | 190 | 247 | 285 | 323 | 380 | 437 | 475 | 513 | 570 | Mill. tonnes |
Rutile concentration | 2,82 % | 3,10 % | 3,28 % | 3,47 % | 3,75 % | 4,04 % | 4,22 % | 4,41 % | 4,69 % | |
Yearly rutile production < 95% TiO2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | tonnes |
Yearly rutile production 95% TiO2 | 43500 | 56550 | 65250 | 73950 | 87000 | 100050 | 108750 | 117450 | 130500 | tonnes |
Yearly rutile production > 95% TiO2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | tonnes |
Recovery rate | 41 % | 45 % | 48 % | 51 % | 55 % | 59 % | 62 % | 65 % | 69 % | |
TiO2 total | 0,90 | 1,41 | 1,83 | 2,32 | 3,19 | 4,23 | 5,04 | 5,94 | 7,47 | Mill. tonnes |
Estimated mine life | 21 | 25 | 28 | 31 | 37 | 42 | 46 | 51 | 57 | years |
Market value < 95% TiO2 | 350 | 455 | 525 | 595 | 700 | 805 | 875 | 945 | 1050 | USD/ton |
Market value 95% TiO2 | 500 | 650 | 750 | 850 | 1000 | 1150 | 1250 | 1350 | 1500 | USD/ton |
Market value > 95% TiO2 | 650 | 845 | 975 | 1105 | 1300 | 1495 | 1625 | 1755 | 1950 | USD/ton |
Yearly market value TiO2 | 21,8 | 36,8 | 48,9 | 62,9 | 87,0 | 115,1 | 135,9 | 158,6 | 195,8 | MUSD |
Yearly granate production Quality 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | tonnes |
Yearly granate production Quality 2 | 50000 | 65000 | 75000 | 85000 | 100000 | 115000 | 125000 | 135000 | 150000 | tonnes |
Yearly granate production Quality 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | tonnes |
Market value granate Quality 1 | 113 | 146 | 169 | 191 | 225 | 259 | 281 | 304 | 338 | USD/ton |
Market value granate Quality 2 | 188 | 244 | 281 | 319 | 375 | 431 | 469 | 506 | 563 | USD/ton |
Market value granate Quality 3 | 263 | 341 | 394 | 446 | 525 | 604 | 656 | 709 | 788 | USD/ton |
Yearly market value Granate | 9,4 | 15,8 | 21,1 | 27,1 | 37,5 | 49,6 | 58,6 | 68,3 | 84,4 | MUSD |
OPEX | 495 | 545 | 578 | 611 | 660 | 710 | 743 | 776 | 825 | USD/ton |
Profit | 221 | 386 | 496 | 606 | 771 | 936 | 1046 | 1156 | 1322 | USD/ton |
Exchange rate USD/NOK | 6,44 | 7,08 | 7,51 | 7,94 | 8,58 | 9,22 | 9,65 | 10,08 | 10,73 | NOK/USD |
Yearly profit | 62 | 154 | 243 | 356 | 576 | 864 | 1098 | 1369 | 1850 | MNOK |
Total profit | 1,3 | 3,8 | 6,8 | 11,1 | 21,1 | 36,6 | 50,9 | 69,2 | 105,8 | MRD NOK |
Base investment | 2,1 | 2,3 | 2,5 | 2,6 | 2,8 | 3,0 | 3,2 | 3,3 | 3,5 | MRD NOK |
Payback cost | 135 % | 149 % | 158 % | 167 % | 180 % | 194 % | 203 % | 212 % | 225 % | |
Total investment cost | 2,8 | 3,4 | 3,9 | 4,3 | 5,0 | 5,8 | 6,4 | 7,0 | 7,9 | MRD NOK |
External investor project share | 30,0 % | 33,0 % | 35,0 % | 37,0 % | 40,0 % | 43,0 % | 45,0 % | 47,0 % | 50,0 % | |
Remaining investment cost | 2,0 | 2,3 | 2,5 | 2,7 | 3,0 | 3,3 | 3,5 | 3,7 | 3,9 | MRD NOK |
Remaining profit | 0,9 | 2,6 | 4,4 | 7,0 | 12,6 | 20,8 | 28,0 | 36,7 | 52,9 | MRD NOK |
NPV | -1,1 | 0,3 | 1,9 | 4,3 | 9,6 | 17,5 | 24,5 | 33,0 | 49,0 | MRD NOK |
Yearly NPV | -53 | 11 | 68 | 137 | 263 | 414 | 528 | 653 | 856 | MNOK |
Number of shares | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | Mill. |
Share value | -2,1 | 0,5 | 3,7 | 8,3 | 18,6 | 33,9 | 47,3 | 63,8 | 94,7 | NOK/share |
Share value based on historic estimate | -5,2 | 1,3 | 9,1 | 20,5 | 45,8 | 83,4 | 116,6 | 157,1 | 233,2 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 20 | -2,1 | 0,4 | 2,6 | 5,3 | 10,2 | 16,0 | 20,4 | 25,2 | 33,1 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 15 | -1,5 | 0,3 | 2,0 | 4,0 | 7,6 | 12,0 | 15,3 | 18,9 | 24,8 | NOK/share |
Share value for P/E = 10 | -1,0 | 0,2 | 1,3 | 2,7 | 5,1 | 8,0 | 10,2 | 12,6 | 16,5 | NOK/share |
Updated: 27.06.2016 | Low | Base case - 35% | Medium low | Base case - 15% | Base case | Base case + 15% | Medium high | Base case + 35% | High | Unit |
Resource estimate | 77,2 | 100,3 | 115,7 | 131,2 | 154,3 | 177,4 | 192,9 | 208,3 | 231,5 | Mill. tonnes |
Historical resource estimate | 190 | 247 | 285 | 323 | 380 | 437 | 475 | 513 | 570 | Mill. tonnes |
Rutile concentration | 2,82 % | 3,10 % | 3,28 % | 3,47 % | 3,75 % | 4,04 % | 4,22 % | 4,41 % | 4,69 % | |
Yearly rutile production < 95% TiO2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | tonnes |
Yearly rutile production 95% TiO2 | 45000 | 58500 | 67500 | 76500 | 90000 | 103500 | 112500 | 121500 | 135000 | tonnes |
Yearly rutile production > 95% TiO2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | tonnes |
Recovery rate | 41 % | 45 % | 48 % | 51 % | 55 % | 59 % | 62 % | 65 % | 69 % | |
TiO2 total | 0,90 | 1,41 | 1,83 | 2,32 | 3,19 | 4,23 | 5,04 | 5,94 | 7,47 | Mill. tonnes |
Mine life | 20 | 24 | 27 | 30 | 35 | 41 | 45 | 49 | 55 | years |
Market value < 95% TiO2 | 350 | 455 | 525 | 595 | 700 | 805 | 875 | 945 | 1050 | USD/ton |
Market value 95% TiO2 | 500 | 650 | 750 | 850 | 1000 | 1150 | 1250 | 1350 | 1500 | USD/ton |
Market value > 95% TiO2 | 650 | 845 | 975 | 1105 | 1300 | 1495 | 1625 | 1755 | 1950 | USD/ton |
Total market value TiO2 | 22,5 | 38,0 | 50,6 | 65,0 | 90 | 119,0 | 140,6 | 164,0 | 202,5 | MUSD |
Yearly garnet production Quality 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | tonnes |
Yearly garnet production Quality 2 | 50000 | 65000 | 75000 | 85000 | 100000 | 115000 | 125000 | 135000 | 150000 | tonnes |
Yearly garnet production Quality 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | tonnes |
Market value garnet Quality 1 | 113 | 146 | 169 | 191 | 225 | 259 | 281 | 304 | 338 | USD/ton |
Market value garnet Quality 2 | 187,5 | 243,75 | 281,25 | 318,75 | 375 | 431,25 | 468,75 | 506,25 | 562,5 | USD/ton |
Market value garnet Quality 3 | 263 | 341 | 394 | 446 | 525 | 604 | 656 | 709 | 788 | USD/ton |
Total market value Garnet | 9,4 | 15,8 | 21,1 | 27,1 | 37,5 | 49,6 | 58,6 | 68,3 | 84,4 | MUSD |
OPEX | 495 | 545 | 578 | 611 | 660 | 710 | 743 | 776 | 825 | USD/ton |
Profit | 213 | 376 | 485 | 594 | 757 | 920 | 1028 | 1137 | 1300 | USD/ton |
USD exchange rate | 6,44 | 7,08 | 7,51 | 7,94 | 8,58 | 9,22 | 9,65 | 10,08 | 10,73 | NOK/USD |
Yearly profit | 62 | 156 | 246 | 360 | 584 | 878 | 1117 | 1393 | 1882 | MNOK |
Total profit | 1,2 | 3,8 | 6,7 | 10,9 | 20,7 | 35,9 | 50,0 | 68,1 | 104,1 | MRD NOK |
Base investment | 2,1 | 2,3 | 2,5 | 2,6 | 2,8 | 3,0 | 3,2 | 3,3 | 3,5 | MRD NOK |
Payback cost | 135 % | 149 % | 158 % | 167 % | 180 % | 194 % | 203 % | 212 % | 225 % | |
Total investment cost | 2,8 | 3,4 | 3,9 | 4,3 | 5,0 | 5,8 | 6,4 | 7,0 | 7,9 | MRD NOK |
External investor project share | 30,0 % | 33,0 % | 35,0 % | 37,0 % | 40,0 % | 43,0 % | 45,0 % | 47,0 % | 50,0 % | |
Remaining investment cost | 2,0 | 2,3 | 2,5 | 2,7 | 3,0 | 3,3 | 3,5 | 3,7 | 3,9 | MRD NOK |
Remaining profit | 0,9 | 2,5 | 4,3 | 6,9 | 12,4 | 20,5 | 27,5 | 36,1 | 52,1 | MRD NOK |
NPV | -1,1 | 0,2 | 1,8 | 4,2 | 9,4 | 17,2 | 24,0 | 32,4 | 48,1 | MRD NOK |
Yearly NPV | -56 | 9 | 67 | 137 | 265 | 419 | 536 | 663 | 870 | MNOK |
Number of shares | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | Mill. |
Share value | -2,2 | 0,4 | 3,5 | 8,0 | 18,1 | 33,2 | 46,4 | 62,6 | 93,0 | NOK/share |
Share value based on historical estimate | -5,3 | 1,0 | 8,7 | 19,8 | 44,7 | 81,7 | 114,3 | 154,2 | 229,1 | NOK/share |
P/E | 12 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 26 | 28 | |
Share value for P/E | -1,3 | 0,2 | 2,1 | 4,8 | 10,3 | 17,8 | 24,9 | 33,3 | 47,1 | NOK/share |
Estimatet basert på Sintef's EBITDA estimat for hhv. dagbrudds- og underjordsdrift stemmer forbløffende godt overens med estimatet "medium lav" som er grunncaset pr. i dag. EBITDA ved dagbruddsdrift: 60%, EBITDA ved underjordsdrift: 35%
- "Medium lav" er grunncaset pr. idag.
- "Snitt" anses som mest realistisk basert på at tidligere estimater er på 383 mill. tonn
- Det er forutsatt at resterende kapital som trengs før investeringsbeslutning hentes fra salg av Keliberandeler
- Det er forutsatt at en investor får 40% av prosjektet
Lav | Medium lav | Snitt | Medium høy | Høy | Enhet | |
Forekomst @ 3,8% | 139 | 154 | 269 | 383 | 460 | mill tonn |
Produksjonstid | 29 | 36 | 64 | 92 | 111 | år |
Rutilkonsentrasjon i eklogitten | 3,42 % | 3,80 % | 3,88 % | 3,92 % | 3,96 % | % |
Rutilmalm totalt | 4,7 | 5,9 | 10,4 | 15,0 | 18,2 | mill. tonn |
Utvinningsgrad | 50 % | 55 % | 61 % | 66 % | 72 % | % |
Årlig rutilproduksjon (95% TiO2) | 81000 | 90000 | 99000 | 108000 | 117000 | tonn |
Årlig granatproduksjon | 90000 | 100000 | 110000 | 120000 | 130000 | tonn |
Salgsverdi 95% TiO2 | 900 | 1000 | 1100 | 1200 | 1300 | USD/tonn |
Salgsverdi granatkonsentrat | 225 | 300 | 375 | 450 | 525 | USD/tonn |
Break even | 540 | 600 | 660 | 720 | 780 | USD/tonn |
Profitt pr tonn 95% TiO2 | 360 | 400 | 440 | 480 | 520 | USD/tonn |
Profitt pr tonn granatkonsentrat | 225 | 300 | 375 | 450 | 525 | USD/tonn |
Kurs: 1 USD = 8,36 NOK | 7,52 | 8,36 | 9,20 | 10,03 | 10,87 | NOK/USD |
Profitt i NOK pr tonn 95% TiO2 | 2709 | 3344 | 4046 | 4815 | 5651 | NOK/tonn |
Profitt i NOK pr tonn rutilkonsentrat | 1693 | 2508 | 3449 | 4514 | 5706 | NOK/tonn |
Årlig profitt | 372 | 552 | 780 | 1062 | 1403 | mill. kr |
Total profitt | 11 | 20 | 50 | 97 | 156 | mrd. kr |
Minus investeringskostnader | 2,3 | 2,5 | 2,8 | 3,0 | 3,3 | mrd. kr |
Gjenstående finansiering fram til investeringsbeslutning finansieres ved salg av Kelibereiendeler | 115 | 128 | 141 | 169 | 220 | mill. kr |
Total profitt etter investeringer | 8,5 | 17,2 | 46,9 | 94,4 | 152,8 | mrd. kr |
Salg av 40% til investor | -3,4 | -6,9 | -18,8 | -37,8 | -61,1 | mrd. kr |
Gjenstående verdi til aksjefordeling | 5,1 | 10,3 | 28,1 | 56,6 | 91,7 | mrd. kr |
Antall aksjer pr. 16.06.2016 | 500,0 | 555,5 | 611,1 | 666,6 | 722,2 | mill. aksjer |
Bidrag aksjeverdi (dersom salg "i dag") | 10,2 | 18,6 | 46,0 | 85,0 | 126,9 | kr/aksje |
Ved P/E (aksjeverdi/resultat pr. aksje) | 16 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 24 | - |
Aksjeverdi når P/E legges til grunn for 60% av årlig inntjening (salg av 40% til investor) | 7,1 | 10,7 | 15,3 | 21,0 | 28,0 | kr/aksje |
EBITDA ved dagbruddsdrift (fra Sintef rapport 2013 "Økonomiske ringvirkninger av mineralbrudd i Engebøfjellet") Sintef har beregnet ebitda til 60% ved dagbruddsdrift. | 473 | 523 | 573 | 623 | 673 | mill. NOK |
EBITDA ved underjordsdrift (fra Sintef rapport 2013 "Økonomiske ringvirkninger av mineralbrudd i Engebøfjellet") Sintef har beregnet ebitda til 35% ved underjordsdrift. | 382 | 399 | 416 | 433 | 450 | mill. NOK |
Aksjekurs basert på 15 år med dagbruddsdrift og 5 år med underjordsdrift (P/E=20) og hensyntatt 40% inntektsreduksjon pga. salg til investor (fra Sintef rapport 2013 "Økonomiske ringvirkninger av mineralbrudd i Engebøfjellet") | 10,8 | 10,6 | 10,5 | 10,4 | 10,3 | kr/aksje |
"15000 m kjerneboringer har påvist kjente ressurser på 400 millioner tonn med god rutilførende eklogitt med et snittinnhold på ca 3,5 % rutil. Innholdet varierer mellom 2 % og 7 %, og rutilen er disseminert (spredt) i eklogittbergarten. Forekomsten fortsetter ned mot dypet, og store mengder sannsynlig ressurs er indikert ved hjelp av gravimetriske undersøkelser."
Engebø-forekomsten inneholder rutil som kan fremstilles i renhet av 93 – 96 % TiO2.
Langtidskontrakter for titan rutil 95% TiO2 i bulk ligger rundt USD 1000 pr. tonn
Lav | Snitt | Høy | Enhet | |
Forekomst @ 3,77% | 91,95 | 122,6 | 306,5 | mill tonn |
Forekomst @ 3,75% | 23,775 | 31,7 | 79,25 | mill tonn |
Produksjonstid | 46 | 58 | 138 | år |
Rutilkonsentrasjon i eklogitten | 3,58 % | 3,77 % | 3,96 % | |
Rutilkonsentrasjon i eklogitten | 3,56 % | 3,75 % | 3,94 % | |
Rutilmalm totalt | 4127220 | 5792590 | 15205549 | tonn |
Utvinningsgrad | 55 % | 55 % | 55 % | |
Årlig rutilproduksjon (95% TiO2) | 90000 | 100000 | 110000 | tonn |
Salgsverdi 95% TiO2 | 750 | 1000 | 1250 | USD/tonn |
Break even | 375 | 500 | 625 | USD/tonn |
Profitt pr tonn 95% TiO2 | 375 | 500 | 625 | USD/tonn |
26.05.2015: 1 USD = 7,75 NOK | 6,975 | 7,75 | 8,525 | NOK/USD |
Profitt pr tonn 95% TiO2 | 2616 | 3875 | 5328 | NOK/tonn |
Årlig profitt | 235,4 | 387,5 | 586,1 | mill. kr |
Total profitt | 10,8 | 22,4 | 81,0 | mrd. kr |
Minus investeringskostnader | 2,22 | 2,22 | 2,22 | mrd. kr |
Total profitt etter investeringer | 8,6 | 20,2 | 78,8 | mrd. kr |
Antall aksjer pr. 29.12.2014 | 308,5 | 308,5 | 308,5 | mill. aksjer |
Estimert akseutvidelse | 19 % | 25 % | 31 % | økning |
Antall aksjer etter utvidelse | 366,3 | 385,6 | 404,9 | mill. aksjer |
Bidrag aksjeverdi | 23,4 | 52,5 | 194,6 | kr/aksje |
Årlig utvinning av 100 000 tonn granatkonsentrat som biprodukt er ikke tatt med i beregningene.